In the near future, however, members of the Monetary Policy Council will observe the inflation rate and it will soon appear whether the rate hike in May will affect its level.
Prices at a stable level are the main assumption for the future of the MPC, which would like to bring inflation down to 2.5 percent. +/- 1% The Central Statistical Office reports that in May inflation year on year amounted to 3.6 percent, which is above the inflation target. Does the mortgage market have a chance to revive in the following months of this year? Will banks meet customers and loosen the lending policy? We’ll see.
Low demand for loans despite low margins
It is not difficult to notice that the mortgage market is not developing as it was in 2011. Although Poles are tempted by falling housing prices, whether many of them decide to buy real estate will depend on reports from financial markets.
Relatively low loan margins, which have been maintained since the beginning of the year, still do not translate into an increase in the interest of customers who postpone their housing plans, probably counting on a further decline in property prices.
In addition to housing prices, union experts see other factors affecting purchasing decisions in the housing market, and thus the situation in the mortgage market. Among them are customer concerns about the economic slowdown and uncertain situation on the labor market.
These factors cause that customers are much more prudent
When making decisions about taking a loan. Therefore, the main factor affecting the further development of the credit market is positive information from financial markets and stable economic development.
Two scenarios are possible for the second half of the year: – In the first, if prices remain unchanged, lending should remain at the level of the first months of the year, which means a decrease in the total value of loans granted by 20 percent compared to the level from 2011.
However, if prices fall, some customers will decide to make a purchase, and then credit activity should accelerate. In such a more optimistic scenario, the value of loans granted may be close to that of 2011 – the expert explains.
Will the banks let go of the reins
The fall in real estate prices may create a chance to revive the situation on the mortgage market, but experts of the Association of Financial Consulting Companies also see many factors that could negatively affect it in the second half of 2012.
The ongoing financial crisis in the eurozone is one of the most important risk factors for the credit market. This results in increased caution of banks and a partial tightening of credit criteria for certain customer groups.
It seems that after such a severe tightening of criteria, banks are now looking for ways to loosen lending policy. There is a chance that it should be easier to get a loan, especially in USD, in the second half of the year.